|
Who Will Win, and Who Should What makes this year's Oscar race unique? For one, the nominees were unusually easy to predict. There were few deviations, and no major ones, from the general fields forecast by the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs. Rosters in the Picture, Actress, and Supporting Actress races seemed ordained weeks in advance. Even in the other big races, the final five entrants were culled from a stable set of six or seven contenders. No nominees like Edward Norton in American History X, Sean Penn in Sweet and Lowdown, or the Pollock double-header that beat heavy last-minute odds in recent years. Ironically, though, the winners seem uncharacteristically hard to forecast. This may seem like a silly statement if March 23 rolls around and Chicago simply wins everything in sight. And maybe it's only a hindsight delusion that victors in prior years have been easier calls. Still, I would call this the first year in over a decade when not a single one of the four acting races had a runaway, unambiguous favorite. Several of the second-tier categories (Art Direction, Original Song, Foreign Film) encompass as many as three or four potential winners. I'm genuinely excited...though, being honest, when have I ever not been? Lastly, more than in previous years, my personal enthusiasm for certain nominees seems to be swaying some of my "objective" predictions. Either I am projecting my tastes onto others, or my indifference to all the nominees (Costume Design, Makeup, Visual Effects) makes me not care. All told, I am not only unsure of several predictions registered below, I am convinced at least a few of them are wrong. Why make them anyway? After an especially tedious awards season (more prizes, fewers surprises), I am especially thirsty for dark horses and even disappointments, I guess. In any event, my predictions and personal preferences are highlighted in the left- and right-hand columns respectively. I haven't proclaimed any affinities in Foreign Film or Documentary, having seen one of the 10 nominated films, and I've left out Documentary Short Subject, Animated Short, and Live Action Short altogether, since I'm characteristically at a loss. Happy second-guessing, everyone! |
|
|
My Predictions
BEST PICTURE Chicago Gangs of New York The Hours The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers The Pianist BEST DIRECTOR Pedro Almodóvar, Talk to Her Stephen Daldry, The Hours Rob Marshall, Chicago Roman Polanski, The Pianist Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York BEST ACTRESS Salma Hayek, Frida Nicole Kidman, The Hours Diane Lane, Unfaithful Julianne Moore, Far from Heaven Renée Zellweger, Chicago BEST ACTOR Adrien Brody, The Pianist Nicolas Cage, Adaptation Michael Caine, The Quiet American Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Kathy Bates, About Schmidt Queen Latifah, Chicago Julianne Moore, The Hours Meryl Streep, Adaptation Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Chris Cooper, Adaptation Ed Harris, The Hours Paul Newman, Road to Perdition John C. Reilly, Chicago Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Far from Heaven, Todd Haynes Gangs of New York, Cocks/Zaillian/Lonergan My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Nia Vardalos Talk to Her, Pedro Almodóvar Y tu mamá también, Alfonso & Carlos Cuarón BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY About a Boy, Hedges/Weitz/Weitz Adaptation, Charlie & Donald Kaufman Chicago, Bill Condon The Hours, David Hare The Pianist, Ron Harwood BEST FOREIGN FILM The Crime of Father Amaro (Mexico) Hero (China) The Man without a Past (Finland) Nowhere in Africa (Germany) Zus & Zo (The Netherlands) BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Chicago, Dion Beebe Far from Heaven, Ed Lachman Gangs of New York, Michael Ballhaus The Pianist, Pawel Edelman Road to Perdition, Conrad L. Hall BEST ART DIRECTION Chicago, John Myhre Frida, Felipe Fernández del Paso Gangs of New York, Dante Ferretti LOTR: The Two Towers, Grant Major Road to Perdition, Dennis Gassner BEST COSTUME DESIGN Chicago, Colleen Atwood Frida, Julie Weiss Gangs of New York, Sandy Powell The Hours, Ann Roth The Pianist, Anna Sheppard BEST EDITING Chicago, Martin Walsh Gangs of New York, Thelma Schoonmaker The Hours, Peter Boyle LOTR: The Two Towers, Horton/Olssen The Pianist, Hervé de Luze BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Catch Me If You Can, John Williams Far from Heaven, Elmer Bernstein Frida, Elliott Goldenthal The Hours, Philip Glass Road to Perdition, Thomas Newman BEST SOUND Chicago Gangs of New York The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Road to Perdition Spider-Man BEST ORIGINAL SONG "Burn It Blue," Frida "Father and Daughter," Wild Thornberrys "The Hands that Built America," Gangs/NY "I Move On," Chicago "Lose Yourself," 8 Mile BEST ANIMATED FILM Ice Age Lilo & Stitch Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron Spirited Away Treasure Planet BEST DOCUMENTARY Bowling for Columbine Daughter from Danang Prisoner of Paradise Spellbound Winged Migration BEST SOUND EFFECTS The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Minority Report Road to Perdition BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Spider-Man Star Wars, Episode 2: Attack of the Clones BEST MAKEUP Frida The Time Machine |
BEST PICTURE Chicago Gangs of New York The Hours The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers The Pianist BEST DIRECTOR Pedro Almodóvar, Talk to Her Stephen Daldry, The Hours Rob Marshall, Chicago Roman Polanski, The Pianist Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York BEST ACTRESS Salma Hayek, Frida Nicole Kidman, The Hours Diane Lane, Unfaithful Julianne Moore, Far from Heaven Renée Zellweger, Chicago BEST ACTOR Adrien Brody, The Pianist Nicolas Cage, Adaptation Michael Caine, The Quiet American Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Kathy Bates, About Schmidt Queen Latifah, Chicago Julianne Moore, The Hours Meryl Streep, Adaptation Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Chris Cooper, Adaptation Ed Harris, The Hours Paul Newman, Road to Perdition John C. Reilly, Chicago Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Far from Heaven, Todd Haynes Gangs of New York, Cocks/Zaillian/Lonergan My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Nia Vardalos Talk to Her, Pedro Almodóvar Y tu mamá también, Alfonso & Carlos Cuarón BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY About a Boy, Hedges/Weitz/Weitz Adaptation, Charlie & Donald Kaufman Chicago, Bill Condon The Hours, David Hare The Pianist, Ron Harwood BEST FOREIGN FILM The Crime of Father Amaro (Mexico) Hero (China) The Man without a Past (Finland) Nowhere in Africa (Germany) Zus & Zo (The Netherlands) BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Chicago, Dion Beebe Far from Heaven, Ed Lachman Gangs of New York, Michael Ballhaus The Pianist, Pawel Edelman Road to Perdition, Conrad L. Hall BEST ART DIRECTION Chicago, John Myhre Frida, Felipe Fernández del Paso Gangs of New York, Dante Ferretti LOTR: The Two Towers, Grant Major Road to Perdition, Dennis Gassner BEST COSTUME DESIGN Chicago, Colleen Atwood Frida, Julie Weiss Gangs of New York, Sandy Powell The Hours, Ann Roth The Pianist, Anna Sheppard BEST EDITING Chicago, Martin Walsh Gangs of New York, Thelma Schoonmaker The Hours, Peter Boyle LOTR: The Two Towers, Horton/Olssen The Pianist, Hervé de Luze BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Catch Me If You Can, John Williams Far from Heaven, Elmer Bernstein Frida, Elliott Goldenthal The Hours, Philip Glass Road to Perdition, Thomas Newman BEST SOUND Chicago Gangs of New York The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Road to Perdition Spider-Man BEST ORIGINAL SONG "Burn It Blue," Frida "Father and Daughter," Wild Thornberrys "The Hands that Built America," Gangs/NY "I Move On," Chicago "Lose Yourself," 8 Mile BEST ANIMATED FILM Ice Age Lilo & Stitch Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron Spirited Away Treasure Planet BEST DOCUMENTARY Bowling for Columbine Daughter from Danang Prisoner of Paradise Spellbound Winged Migration BEST SOUND EFFECTS The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Minority Report Road to Perdition BEST VISUAL EFFECTS The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Spider-Man Star Wars, Episode 2: Attack of the Clones BEST MAKEUP Frida The Time Machine |
| Permalink | Oscars 2002 | Movies 2002 | Blog |