Nominee Jennifer Connelly A Beautiful Mind 4:3 |
A beautiful, intelligent younger actress emerging from years of forgettable character parts and a recent spate of jaw-dropping indies to claim the lead opposite The Actor of his moment and act neither afraid of him nor insolently attention-seeking? Mira Sorvino won with a lot more of the attention-seeking. Mercedes Ruehl won in a lot more left-leaning film. Juliette Binoche won with a way lamer plotline. Kim Basinger won with the same costar. Marcia Gay Harden won against Connelly's last costar. Sensing a pattern? |
Connelly's only vulnerable if the appeal of the Great Ladies is too strong to resist rewarding them in her steadbut which of the Great Ladies? Mirren, Smith, and Winslet will all have their supporters, and then we're back at square one... |
Helen Mirren Gosford Park 3:1 |
Mirren disappears into what's in many ways the least showy of Gosford Park's two dozen leads, though she blooms later on when she eventually gets her moment. She's done everything from wifely devotion to sexual fearlessness in the course of her career, and the Academy's given her nothing to show for it.
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The Academy didn't give Edith Evans anything to show, or May Whitty, or Gladys Cooper, or Kim Stanley, and even Gloria Stuart and Lauren freakin' Bacall were outflown by that sweet bird of youth in the '97 and '96 races. And that was without scene-chewing costars to siphon off their votes.
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Maggie Smith Gosford Park 5:1 |
Having just watched Ingrid Bergman in Murder on the Orient Express, another murder "mystery" among the audaciously wealthy, I no longer harbor any certainties that one would demur from voting a third, entirely unnecessarily Oscar to a proven favorite in a thinnish part. Indeed, since Maggs' punchlines may offer the one oasis of obvious humor to viewers who otherwise don't care, she may be easier to get excited about than dour-faced Helen Mirren.
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She does have those two other Oscars. And she does have a repetitive persona from film to film that's fun to nominatebut to give an actual award to?
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Marisa Tomei In the Bedroom 12:1 |
In the Bedroom is a widely admired film that allowed Tomei to second-guess all those harpies who claimed her first Oscar was a mistake.
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Yep, folks, she already has an Oscarand if Dame Maggie Smith is going to be denied a trophy based on past victories, there ain't gonna be no exceptions for Marisa Tomei!
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Kate Winslet Iris 4:1 |
Iris exists as a film only because Winslet, no less so than Dench, exists as an actress. Her rare combination of sex appeal, distinterest in sex appeal, brazen physicality, and predilection for literate projects makes her a totally rare bird in the film world, and there's a perception that she's owed something only seven short years into her career. |
This just isn't the time: Connelly has all the buzz right now, and she's easier to cast, so the Hollywood crowd will be more motivated to give her the boost. Winslet will be back for more races, no doubt playing more indomitable free spirits, and Iris increasingly cedes thematic focus to her older costars.
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