Nominee John Logan The Aviator 5:1 |
Being the only Best Picture contender in this lineup can't hurt, especially given that it's the runaway leader in total nominations. Scripter John Logan has been a reliable go-to fellow for efficient originals and effective doctoring jobs, so good will has probably accumulated in the industry. Star-studded scope of the project looks good on paper. |
The Aviator seems like more of a directorial extravaganza than a writer's coup, and some of the skeptics' major pointshow did Hughes go "bankrupt" so many times and still have billions of dollars?stem from flaws in the structure and orientation of the script. Even if Logan is approaching name-brand status among writers, he isn't name-brand like Charlie Kaufman. |
Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry, and Pierre Bismuth Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind 2:1 |
The category is called Original Screenplay. Though actually it isn't. It's called Best Screenplay Written Directly
for the Screen. Forget what I said before. The category is called Original Screenplay. Wait, have I said something
like this before? (P.S. Ingenious romantic cult-hits-in-the-making should have an easy road, à la The Usual Suspects
in 1995.)
|
If the Academy really felt good about this film, it wouldn't have straggled to the finish line with only two nominations.
The Aviator's overall Oscar momentum may be impossible to squelch, especially since Kaufman has been a frontrunner-turned-runner-up
in each of his previous nomination years.
|
Keir Pearson and Terry George Hotel Rwanda 25:1 |
The bravery and desperate cunning of Paul Rusesabagina are adroitly captured in this no-frills screenplay, which also serves
as a halfway-credible primer in the basics of the Rwandan genocide; Hollywood might choose to soothe its residual guilt at
turning away its attention when the real genocide was actually happening.
|
If they really felt like doing that, Hotel Rwanda would have placed in a few more categories. Plus, compared to the
grandiosity of The Aviator, the virtuosity of The Incredibles, and the luminosity of Eternal Sunshine,
this movie comes across as one that wrote and directed itself.
|
Brad Bird The Incredibles 3:1 |
This film has a better shot of winning than any of the previously nominated 'toons in this category (Toy Story, Finding
Nemo, or, in the Adapted division, Shrek). Partly this is because the film was so well-liked that a Best Picture
nomination was legitimately possible, partly because there will be plenty of voters who find the Aviator and Eternal
Sunshine scripts to be not their cup of tea, and partly because Bird is widely credited (whether or not this is true)
with bringing new levels of thematic layering and adult sophistication to an animated feature.
|
At the same time, I am sure there are still some animation snobs trolling around in the Academy, and since Bird is destined
to win that Animated Film Oscar, voters may opt for one of the frontrunners here after all.
|
Mike Leigh Vera Drake 10:1 |
Leigh's three nominations in this category since '96 are often looked at askance: if his screenplays are largely derived from the actors' own improvisations, then as Tina might say, what's Leigh got to do with it? Here's what: pruning and fine-tuning all that dialogue, structuring and ordering the scenes, keeping an eye out for thematic clarity and consistency, knowing where to start the story and where to end it (something Leigh is particularly good at). |
Still, his nominations are often looked at askance. He's got an uphill battle to climb, especially if his Director and Screenplay
nominations are both regarded as sufficient rewards in themselves.
|