And They're Off! 
NicksFlickPicks Updated Oscar Predictions: October 2003
On the first of each month, from now through February, I will be adding a monthly update to my Oscar Predictions feature. At the beginning of September, I offered some early lists of possible contenders and projected winners. Now, with the half-prestigious, half-desperate Fall Movie Season underway, the races are starting to look a little clearer. There is still plenty of time, of course, for the inevitable setbacks, surprises, and switcheroos, so check in again at the beginning of November! But these are my hunches for where the horseraces in the eight major categories currently stand.
BEST PICTURE
Lots of hopefuls, but so far, only Mystic River and The Return of the King look like sure things.
BEST DIRECTOR
Essentially follows the Picture probabilities, but look out for spoilers like Gus Van Sant and Alejandro González Iñárritu.
BEST ACTRESS
With two prominent, well-hyped roles, Cate Blanchett is well ahead of her closest competitors.
BEST ACTOR
Another double threat, Sean Penn of Mystic River and 21 Grams only has himself to beat.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Linney and Marcia Gay Harden, the women of Mystic River, are in the best early positions.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Un-Oscared vets like Albert Finney and Malcolm McDowell will be scrambling for this prize.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The dark, depressing 21 Grams should square off against the larkish Love, Actually and the bittersweet Station Agent.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Clearly Mystic River's prize to lose, though Big Fish could make a big splash.