BEST PICTURE The Alamo Cold Mountain In America LOTR: The Return of the King Mystic River Close Competition Big Fish But only if it isn't too weird The Company But only if it's especially good Altman Finding Nemo But only if everything else disappoints Girl with a Pearl Earring But only if it's better than the book Hero But only if it's ruled eligible House of Sand and Fog In This World The Statement But only if PR and reviews are huge |
BEST DIRECTOR Clint Eastwood, Mystic River Peter Jackson, LOTR: Return of the King Norman Jewison, The Statement Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain Jim Sheridan, In America Close Competition Shari S. Berman & Robert Pulcini, American Splendor Tim Burton, Big Fish But only if they aren't too weird, and B.O. is high Robert Altman, The Company Bernardo Bertolucci, The Dreamers But only if they're career-level achievements Alejandro González Iñárritu, 21 Grams Michael Winterbottom, In This World But only if PR and reviews are huge Vadim Perelman, House of Sand and Fog Peter Webber, Girl with a Pearl Earring But only if they are stunning debuts Zhang Yimou, Hero Errol Morris, The Fog of War But only if Oscar is feeling adventurous |
BEST ACTRESS Cate Blanchett, Veronica Guerin Jennifer Connelly, House of Sand and Fog Scarlett Johansson, Girl with a Pearl Earring Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain Samantha Morton, In America Close Competition Cate Blanchett, The Missing Scarlett Johansson, Lost in Translation Nicole Kidman, Dogville But only if they outshine the stars' other films Helen Mirren, The Clearing Gwyneth Paltrow, Sylvia Sarah Polley, My Life without Me But only if box-office really catches fire Meg Ryan, In the Cut Naomi Watts, 21 Grams But only if the films get noticed, and aren't too dark Uma Thurman, Kill Bill, Vol. One But only if she's hilarious, and not Mia redux Catherine Zeta-Jones, Intolerable Cruelty But only if she's hilarious, and not Velma redux |
BEST ACTOR Michael Caine, The Statement Paddy Considine, In America Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog Jude Law, Cold Mountain Sean Penn, Mystic River Close Competition Sean Penn, 21 Grams But only if he outshines his Mystic role Lázaro Ramos, Madame Sata Campbell Scott, Secret Lives of Dentists But only if key critics' groups take notice George Clooney, Intolerable Cruelty Hugh Grant, Love, Actually But only if they transcend their usual personas Peter Dinklage, The Station Agent Robert Downey Jr., The Singing Detective But only if the films get noticed, and aren't too weird Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean Paul Giamatti, American Splendor Bill Murray, Lost in Translation But only if Oscar is feeling adventurous Anthony Hopkins, The Human Stain But only if Oscar is feeling conservative |
BEST SUPPORING ACTRESS Stockard Channing, Anything Else Blythe Danner, Sylvia Hope Davis, American Splendor Laura Linney, Mystic River Charlotte Rampling, The Statement Close Competition Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River Tilda Swinton, The Statement But only if their co-supports don't outshine them Joan Allen, Off the Map Patricia Clarkson, The Station Agent Robin Wright Penn, The Singing Detective Alfre Woodard, Radio But only if box-office or critics groups notice Nicole Kidman, The Human Stain But only if she's convincingly frumpy Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind But only if it's released in time Atkins/Portman/Zellweger, Cold Mountain Bonham Carter/Lange, Big Fish Dunst/Gyllenhaal/Stevenson, Mona Lisa Smile Gyllenhaal/Moreno/Steenburgen/Taylor, Casa de Los Babys But only if each ensemble yields a stand-out pick |
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Kevin Bacon, Mystic River Alan Bates, The Statement Albert Finney, Big Fish Edward Herrmann, Intolerable Cruelty Malcolm McDowell, The Company Close Competition Laurence Fishburne, Mystic River Tim Robbins, Mystic River Geoffrey Rush, Intolerable Cruelty Billy Bob Thornton, Intolerable Cruelty But only if their co-supports don't outshine them Jeff Bridges, Seabiscuit Daniel Craig, Sylvia Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams Ciaran Hinds, Veronica Guerin Tom Wilkinson, Girl with a Pearl Earring But only if the films are juggernauts Viggo Mortensen, LOTR: Return of the King Elijah Wood, LOTR: Return of the King But only if sequel bias doesn't rule them out Echevarría/Patric/Thornton, The Alamo Gleeson/Hoffman/Sutherland, Cold Mountain Harris/Sinise, The Human Stain But only if each ensemble yields a stand-out pick |
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Finding Nemo In America Intolerable Cruelty Love, Actually 21 Grams Close Competition Anything Else But only if Woody is back in shape Bend It Like Beckham But only if Oscar voters remember it The Company But only if it's especially good Altman Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind But only if it's released in time Hero But only if it's ruled eligible Kill Bill, Volume One But only if Tarantino shows new gifts Mona Lisa Smile But only if it's bigger and better than expected |
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY American Splendor Cold Mountain Mystic River Seabiscuit The Statement Close Competition Big Fish But only if it isn't too weird Girl with a Pearl Earring House of Sand and Fog The Human Stain But only if B.O. is good and book fans are pleased LOTR: Return of the King But only if sequel bias doesn't rule it out The Singing Detective The Station Agent But only if audiences and critics embrace them |