It's never too early to start predicting Oscar nominees, and with the Academy roster due out on January 25, there's all the more reason to be a little hasty. In less than three weeks, the National Board of Review will fit their usual bill as the first critics group to announce their annual honorees. So, no time like the present to hop on this awards-season train.
Come to think of it, I don't even know why I'm making excuses for the "hastiness" of this feature. I know people—and, if you're reading this, you probably know people—who had already started this guessing game before Charlize even got home to redecorate her mantel. Without further ado, then, here's how the big races look to me right now. (Of course, that was all then; this is now.)
Picture/Director — Lead Actors — Supporting Actors — Screenplays
BEST PICTURE The Aviator Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind Fahrenheit 9/11 Finding Neverland Ray Scorsese's film is starry and expensive. Sunshine's appeal has held on all year. Moore is more for burning-mad liberals. Escapism in period dress is Oscar's wet dream. Who doesn't love Ray Charles?  Close Competition Closer The Sea Inside But only if reviews are huge and receipts are respectable Hotel Rwanda Kinsey But only if voters don't feel lectured to Sideways But only if Fox Searchlight can keep the film alive The Motorcycle Diaries But only if Focus Features can keep the film alive The Phantom of the Opera But only if pure cheese is reasonably well-averted Alexander A Very Long Engagement But only if the spectacles have heart, not just looks The Incredibles Shrek 2 But only if the Animated category isn't deemed enough The Passion of the Christ But only if Gibson has enough loyal pals |
BEST DIRECTOR Marc Forster, Finding Neverland Michel Gondry, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind Michael Moore, Fahrenheit 9/11 Mike Nichols, Closer Martin Scorsese, The Aviator Forster's an up-and-comer swinging on the right stars. Gondry kept tone, plot, and performance in synch. Sure, they booed him, but you know they still love him. An old pro to dignify all the new tykes. Surely this man is going to win eventually? Close Competition Bill Condon, Kinsey Taylor Hackford, Ray But only if they're credited with more than performances Alexander Payne, Sideways But only if the box office and word-of-mouth keep building Pedro Almodóvar, Bad Education Alejandro Amenábar, The Sea Inside Jean-Pierre Jeunet, A Very Long Engagement Walter Salles, The Motorcycle Diaries Zhang Yimou, House of Flying Daggers But only if the subtitle crowd can agree on a favorite Oliver Stone, Alexander But only if it's a huge hit and a return to form Richard Linklater, Before Sunset Michael Mann, Collateral But only if the directors feel like rallying behind pure craft Wes Anderson, The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou Terry George, Hotel Rwanda But only if the films score bigger than anyone's expecting Brad Bird, The Incredibles But only if animation can finally get real respect |
BEST ACTRESS Annette Bening, Being Julia Téa Leoni, Spanglish Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind Bening's the rare woman with a punchy vehicle all to herself. If Columbia starts marketing this thing, Leoni is likely. The DVD is well-timed, and the performance is immaculate. Buzz has built since Venice; another topical lefty choice. Surely this woman is going to win eventually? Close Competition Lynn Collins, The Merchant of Venice But only if critics help, and Pacino doesn't outshine her Julie Delpy, Before Sunset But only if critics help, and voters catch the DVD Paz Vega, Spanglish But only if she clicks, and she isn't classed as Supporting Audrey Tautou, A Very Long Engagement But only if the passion of Audrey is a real second coming Nicole Kidman, Dogville Uma Thurman, Kill Bill, Vol. 2 But only if early releases and harsh content don't sink them Helen Mirren, The Clearing But only if anyone even distantly remembers the film Emmy Rossum, The Phantom of the Opera But only if Christine seems like more than a silly twit Julia Roberts, Closer But only if anyone really feels like she needs another nod |
BEST ACTOR Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside Jeff Bridges, The Door in the Floor Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland Jamie Foxx, Ray Liam Neeson, Kinsey Bardem's an ill, aging, sympathetic martyr. Hello! Raffish actor everyone likes scores big with critics. Depp pulls a 180° and still entertains all ages. That sound you hear is the clamor of front-runner buzz. Another likable actor in another showy, chancy part. Close Competition Al Pacino, The Merchant of Venice But only if one of the five front-runners takes a spill Gael García Bernal, The Motorcycle Diaries But only if Hollywood really wants to break him out Jude Law, Closer But only if his fans pick this role to reward a year of work Kevin Bacon, The Woodsman Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda Sean Penn, The Assassination of Richard Nixon But only if these last-minute releases hit big, fast, and loud Jim Carrey, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind But only if the Academy has finally beaten their envy problem Paul Giamatti, Sideways But only if this critics' darling can finally connect more broadly Gerald Butler, The Phantom of the Opera Jim Caviezel, The Passion of the Christ Tom Cruise, Collateral Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator Kevin Spacey, Beyond the Sea But only if this year were a little less competitive |
BEST SUPPORING ACTRESS Cate Blanchett, The Aviator Cloris Leachman, Spanglish Laura Linney, Kinsey Virginia Madsen, Sideways Natalie Portman, Closer Surely this woman is going to win eventually? Few are funnier, and Oscar likes to laugh in this race. A highly regarded pro in an Oscar-tailored role. Critics could be key, as they were with Linney in 2000. Hollywood can't wait for her to become a headliner. Close Competition Julie Christie, Finding Neverland Regina King, Ray But only if their films have long coattails Laura Dern, We Don't Live Here Anymore But only if one of the critics' groups singles her out Barbra Streisand, Meet the Fockers Lily Tomlin, I ♥ Huckabees But only if Leachman relinquishes the funnywoman slot Paz Vega, Spanglish Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind But only if cautious studios campaign for them here Irma P. Hall, The Ladykillers Maia Morgenstern, The Passion of the Christ But only if voters have long and adventurous memories Meryl Streep, The Manchurian Candidate But only if voters can't fight the reflex Kate Bosworth, Beyond the Sea Jodie Foster, A Very Long Engagement Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda Kyra Sedgwick, The Woodsman But only if these holiday releases hit big, fast, and loud |
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR David Carradine, Kill Bill, Vol. 2 Willem Dafoe, The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou Jude Law, I ♥ Huckabees Clive Owen, Closer Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey Key supports in QT films have historically done well. Sympathetically kooky comic relief à la Chris Cooper. Oscar seems to like him, and this is spit-polished work. Another matinée idol who only needs a first nod to break out. After last year's omission, a Pieces of April-type payback. Close Competition Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby Nick Nolte, Hotel Rwanda But only if these Oscar-less pros get the roles they need Liev Schreiber, The Manchurian Candidate But only if the Golden Globe voters include him in the race Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland But only if Hollywood's heart has room for another precocious kid Tom Cruise, Collateral But only if Paramount and DreamWorks see an opening here Mark Wahlberg, I ♥ Huckabees But only if the Actors Branch is patient with the film Thomas Haden Church, Sideways Rodrigo De la Serna, The Motorcycle Diaries But only if voters are willing to learn a new name John Lithgow, Kinsey Peter O'Toole, Troy But only if voters get abjectly nostalgic for a familiar name |
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY The Aviator Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind The Incredibles Kinsey Ray If Gangs got a writing nod, why not this? They liked the half-mature Kaufman, but they love the new one. Clever animation tends to make inroads in this race. The provocations of the material will be taken as a script virtue. Enthusiasm for the film and the man should be contagious. Close Competition Bad Education Spanglish But only if these winning writers are back on top form I ♥ Huckabees The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou But only if voters can handle more than one surreal comedy Shrek 2 But only if there's room for more than one hot cartoon Before Sunset Vera Drake But only if paid writers go in for semi-improvisations Hotel Rwanda But only if the movie scores big, fast, and loud Garden State Napoleon Dynamite But only if the big dogs make room for a frisky puppy Fahrenheit 9/11 But only if the Guild endorses it as they did Columbine |
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Closer The Door in the Floor Finding Neverland The Motorcycle Diaries Sideways A playwright adapts his own high-profile work. Reviewers were kind, and Irving's name spells "class" to voters. Good place to reward an also-ran for the bigger prizes. Ché's story is timely and the film's tone is perfect for Oscar. Despite the Schmidt snub, Payne is still well-respected. Close Competition A Very Long Engagement But only if the recent taste for foreign flavors persists The Merchant of Venice But only if Radford brings Shakespeare fully alive We Don't Live Here Anymore But only if voters like Dubus better than Irving A Home at the End of the World But only if voters like Cunningham better than Dubus The Phantom of the Opera But only if the reviews are really solid and the story coheres Being Julia But only if Annette sweeps it in, Passion Fish-style Before Sunset But only if this absurd studio classification stays in place Stage Beauty But only if this film isn't a distant memory by Christmas |
Meanwhile, as we await the late-year releases, take a look back at my own mid-year picks of the year's best, covering January through August.