Surprise! – I've adjusted some of the following, and added predix for all 21 races here. Did anyone think this list was really "final"?? |
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December Predictions The Aviator Fahrenheit 9/11 Finding Neverland Million Dollar Baby Sideways trailed by... Hotel Rwanda Ray and in the far distance... Eternal Sunshine... The Phantom of the Opera Kinsey Closer The Incredibles The Motorcycle Diaries |
But Since Then... Sideways can't be stopped, and Sunshine can't get started. Million Dollar Baby packed in all kinds of critics' awards and guild citations. Box-office hasn't heated up much for Rwanda, but people still seem excited about it. Phantom doesn't seem to be haunting anyone, with the possible exception of its investors. The Screen Actors, Directors, Producers, and Writers Guilds all flipped Closer the bird. Michael Moore is smelling like last week's tuna sandwich; the increasing severity of world problems is making his carpy brand of absurdism hit the wrong notes even among people who sympathize. Still, it ain't impossible, though Gibson's camp is nearly as loud. |
...thus, Final Predictions *The Aviator* *Finding Neverland* Hotel Rwanda *Million Dollar Baby* *Sideways* trailed by... *Ray* Fahrenheit 9/11 and in the far distance... Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind The Phantom of the Opera The Passion of the Christ |
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December Predictions Eastwood/Million Mann/Collateral Payne/Sideways Scorsese/Aviator Zhang/Daggers trailed by... Gondry/Eternal Forster/Neverland Moore/Fahrenheit Nichols/Condon Condon/Kinsey and in the far distance... George/Hotel Rwanda Salles/Motorcycle Hackford/Ray Linklater/Before Sunset |
But Since Then... Payne, Eastwood, and Scorsese have remained way at the head of the pack. Buzz on Zhang has swelled, including a prediction in Entertainment Weekly. Continued attention to Collateral bodes well for Mann. Despite all of this, the Directors Guild decided that mediocrities like Taylor Hackford and Marc Forster were superior practitioners of their craft than either of the above (much less Gondry, Condon, Nichols, Linklater, etc.). At least one of those two place-holders is bound to drop out, but which one, and for whom? Late Add Gondry is niggling at my conscience; won't the directors care? |
...thus, Final Predictions *Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby* Michel Gondry, Eternal Sunshine/Spotless Mind *Alexander Payne, Sideways* *Martin Scorsese, The Aviator* Zhang Yimou, House of Flying Daggers trailed by... Michael Mann, Collateral Marc Forster, Finding Neverland *Taylor Hackford, Ray* and in the far distance... Michael Moore, Fahrenheit 9/11 Terry George, Hotel Rwanda Richard Linklater, Before Sunset ...but I missed: *Mike Leigh, Vera Drake* |
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December Predictions Bening/Being Julia Rossum/Phantom Sandino Moreno/Maria Staunton/Vera Drake Swank/Million trailed by... Thurman/KBv2 Winslet/Eternal and in the far distance... Delpy/Before Sunset Johansson/Love Song Kidman/Birth |
But Since Then... Staunton and Swank have hauled most of the critics awards, with Sandino Moreno a frequent choice in the Newcomer races. Bening and Thurman have neither gained nor lost any heat. (A possible Globe win for Bening would be a good break.) Thanks to her double-threat, Winslet has sustained a good amount of PR. Rossum's facial expression is rumored to have changed once during a holiday festivity, but no one agrees quite when. (Must have been the nog.) Delpy remains a critics' fave, and a frequent runner-up. Is that enough? New Line agreeably re-released Birth into a couple of theaters. Zhang's star continues to ascend, and with Memoirs of a Geisha coming up, she'll have a lot of new friends in the studio system who would like to have an Oscar nominee in their preview trailer. |
...thus, Final Predictions *Annette Bening, Being Julia* *Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace* *Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake* *Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby* *Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine...Spotless Mind* trailed by... Zhang Ziyi, House of Flying Daggers Uma Thurman, Kill Bill, Vol. 2 and in the far distance... Julie Delpy, Before Sunset Emmy Rossum, The Phantom of the Opera Nicole Kidman, Birth |
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December Predictions Bardem/Sea Inside Eastwood/Million Foxx/Ray Giamatti/Sideways Neeson/Kinsey trailed by... Depp/Neverland Cheadle/Rwanda DiCaprio/Aviator and in the far distance... García Bernal/Motorcycle Bridges/Door Penn/Assassination Spacey/Beyond |
But Since Then... The buzz for Giamatti and Cheadle continues. Baby's buzz isn't necessarily sweeping in Eastwood's performance. Depp, DiCaprio, and Neeson seem to be fighting for the same two slots, with Bardem sinking along with The Sea Inside's receipts. Foxx seems poised to win this thing. Late Add Okay, Leo won the Globe. But they are starfuckers. Either this is my bonehead miss of the year, or I'll be among the few and the proud to spot the snub. Wait, I'm not that courageous. I'm switching him out for Neeson. |
...thus, Final Predictions *Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda* *Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland* *Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator* *Jamie Foxx, Ray* Paul Giamatti, Sideways trailed by... Liam Neeson, Kinsey *Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby* Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside and in the far distance... Gael García Bernal, The Motorcycle Diaries Jeff Bridges, The Door in the Floor |
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December Predictions Blanchett/Aviator Linney/Kinsey Madsen/Sideways Portman/Closer Winslet/Neverland trailed by... Warren/Ray Streep/Manchurian and in the far distance... Leachman/Spanglish Okonedo/Rwanda Dern/We Don't... Redgrave/Kinsey |
But Since Then... Virginia and Cate are duking it out for front-runner status. Widespread adoration for Winslet and combined momentum for her two films make her a possible spoiler. (Too bad, since it's her least interesting performance since A Kid in King Arthur's Court.) Sharon Warren just won't go away. Everyone's talking about her, and the role is hugely sympathetic. And Ray is sure catching on... ...while Kinsey and Closer aren't. I am doubting Linney's "lock" status, unless she wins the Globe. There's one huge shock each year (à la Dennis Quaid in Far from Heaven), and I think she's vulnerable. Leachman and Okonedo got SAG nods, but those rosters are notoriously variable in terms of Oscar correspondence. |
...thus, Final Predictions *Cate Blanchett, The Aviator* *Virginia Madsen, Sideways* *Natalie Portman, Closer* Sharon Warren, Ray Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland trailed by... *Laura Linney, Kinsey* and in the far distance... Cloris Leachman, Spanglish Meryl Streep, The Manchurian Candidate *Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda* |
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December Predictions Carradine/KBv2 Church/Sideways Freeman/Million Owen/Closer Sarsgaard/Kinsey trailed by... Foxx/Collateral and in the far distance... Highmore/Neverland Wahlberg/Huckabees De la Serna/Motorcycle |
But Since Then... The SAG folks went for Foxx, Highmore, and James Garner (The Notebook) over Carradine, Owen, or Sarsgaard. Though Closer's buzz has turned poisonous, Owen is best positioned among its cast to survive, and he has a leg up over Carradine and Sarsgaard, too. Highmore is a possibility, but only if Neverland gets an across-the-board pass. I'd like to think Foxx's stowaway status in this category will be rejected as the stunt that it is, but he's been popping up on everyone's list. The Notebook?? |
...thus, Final Predictions David Carradine, Kill Bill, Vol. 2 *Thomas Haden Church, Sideways* *Jamie Foxx, Collateral* *Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby* *Clive Owen, Closer* trailed by... Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland and in the far distance... James Garner, The Notebook ...but I missed: *Alan Alda, The Aviator* |
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December Predictions The Aviator Eternal Sunshine... Hotel Rwanda The Incredibles Kinsey trailed by... Ray and in the far distance... Before Sunset Vera Drake Bad Education Collateral |
But Since Then... Aviator and Eternal seem safest, and Pixar always comes through. Kinsey held on at the WGA, where Rwanda overcame Ray. I'm still waffling about which of those will be the fifth nominee. The WGA mysteriously agrees that Before Sunset was "adapted" from something. They also mysteriously believe that Garden State was well-written. |
...thus, Final Predictions *The Aviator* *Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind* *The Incredibles* Kinsey Ray trailed by... *Hotel Rwanda* and in the far distance... *Vera Drake* Garden State Collateral Maria Full of Grace |
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December Predictions Closer Finding Neverland Million Dollar Baby The Motorcycle Diaries Sideways trailed by... Shrek 2 The Door in the Floor and in the far distance... The Phantom of the Opera Before Sunset A Very Long Engagement We Don't Live... |
But Since Then... The WGA snubbed Closer and Neverland in favor of the weirdly categorized Before Sunset and the audaciously un-Academy-like Mean Girls. I'm still not sure I picture Tina Fey on Oscar's ballot, but she'll at least have a leg up on Andrew Lloyd Webber and the Dubus fiasco. Don't count Irving out, nor Shrek 2, original though it secretly is. Of my five preserved predictions, Closer is now the most likely to drop. |
...thus, Final Predictions Closer *Finding Neverland* *Million Dollar Baby* *The Motorcycle Diaries* *Sideways* trailed by... The Door in the Floor Before Sunset and in the far distance... Shrek 2 Mean Girls A Very Long Engagement |
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Guild Nominations (from the American Society of Cinematographers, or ASC) The Aviator Robert Richardson Collateral Dion Beebe & Paul Cameron The Passion of the Christ Caleb Deschanel Ray Pawel Edelman A Very Long Engagement Bruno Delbonnel |
But Then... One or two ASC nominees have missed the Oscar lineup every year since '96 (when the ASC hedged their bets with a six-film lineup). The mismatches inevitably replace a commercial entry on the ASC list (Return of the King, Last Samurai, Perfect Storm, Sixth Sense, etc.) with a smaller artistic venture (City of God, Girl with a Pearl Earring, Malèna, End of the Affair, etc.). The only recent exceptions were the hit-for-hit swap of Pearl Harbor for Black Hawk Down in '01 and Frida dropping out for juggernaut Chicago in '02. |
...thus, Final Predictions *The Aviator* Collateral *House of Flying Daggers* The Motorcycle Diaries *The Passion of the Christ* trailed by... Ray *A Very Long Engagement* Closer and in the far distance... Million Dollar Baby Birth ...but I missed: *The Phantom of the Opera* (And who can blame me for that?) |
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Globe Nominations Les Choristes France House of Flying Daggers Hong Kong The Motorcycle Diaries Argentina/Brazil The Sea Inside Spain A Very Long Engagement France |
But Then... The Motorcycle Diaries and A Very Long Engagement aren't eligible. Oscar always has huge discrepancies from the Globes list, largely because of disparate qualifying practices, and also because of different group tastes. (The Globes are usually only honoring crossover hits from the American market anyway.) Yesterday is a sentimental, topical drama about AIDS and motherhood. Hello! A Touch of Spice is a warm family dramedy about food. Triple hello! Whisky has been a festival hit; I think theatrical distribution is already lined up. Sentimental Family Stuff=Academy Aphrodisiacs: see also As in Heaven, The Keys to the House, Up and Down, Simon... Historical epics are good ideas: the Malaysian film is apparently a big wow. Politics can be good or bad: The Welts, Downfall (about Hitler), Innocent Voices, A Lost Embrace (about Jews in Argentina), Chronicles, Machuca (about Pinochet), Earth and Ashes, Turtles Can Fly (about the current war in Iraq), and Olga. |
...thus, Final Predictions *The Chorus/Les Choristes (France)* House of Flying Daggers (Hong Kong) *The Sea Inside (Spain)* A Touch of Spice (Greece) Whisky (Uruguay) trailed by... *Yesterday (South Africa)* The Keys to the House (Italy) *As It Is in Heaven (Sweden)* Hawaii, Oslo (Norway) A Legendary Love (Malaysia) The Welts/Pregi (Poland) *Downfall/Der Untergang (Germany)* Up and Down (The Czech Republic) Innocent Voices (Mexico) A Lost Embrace (Argentina) Simon (The Netherlands) and in the far distance... Chronicles (Ecuador) Machuca (Chile) Earth and Ashes (Afghanistan) Shwaas (India) Campfire (Israel) My Name Is Bach (Switzerland) Beneath Her Window (Slovenia) Turtles Can Fly (Iran) Kontroll (Hungary) Olga (Brazil) |