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November Predictions The Aviator Eternal Sunshine... Fahrenheit 9/11 Finding Neverland Ray trailed by... Closer The Sea Inside Hotel Rwanda Kinsey Sideways and in the far distance... The Motorcycle Diaries The Phantom of the Opera Alexander A Very Long Engagement The Incredibles Shrek 2 The Passion of the Christ |
But Since Then... Eternal Sunshine reaped some Globe nods but lacks strong support from critics' groups. Sideways has sold tickets, hoarded critics' prizes, and swept the Globe nods. Bush lost the election, which either makes Fahrenheit more or less relevant. The Globes disqualified it, which makes its chances hard to read. Harvey 'n' Mike are sitting in a tree, c-a-m-p-a-i-g-n-i-n-g. Clint Eastwood came out of nowhere, swinging. Oliver Stone sank back into oblivion, whining. Closer and Finding Neverland are weakening a bit in the knees (though FN won NBR), while Hotel Rwanda is suddenly making waves. All three are taking baby steps into the marketplace, where Ray did well, Kinsey is having trouble, and the Jeunet film ain't taking off. |
...thus, December Predictions The Aviator Fahrenheit 9/11 Finding Neverland Million Dollar Baby Sideways trailed by... Hotel Rwanda Ray and in the far distance... Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind The Phantom of the Opera Kinsey Closer The Incredibles The Motorcycle Diaries |
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November Predictions Forster/Neverland Gondry/Eternal Moore/Fahrenheit Nichols/Closer Scorsese/Aviator trailed by... Condon/Kinsey Payne/Sideways Hackford/Ray Zhang/Daggers Salles/Motorcycle and in the far distance... Almodóvar/Bad Ed. Jeunet/Very Long Stone/Alexander Amenábar/Sea Inside Mann/Collateral Linklater/Before Sunset Anderson/Life Aquatic George/Hotel Rwanda Bird/The Incredibles |
But Since Then... Payne is being hailed like a new Rohmer. Eastwood elected not to sit this one out. The Ray and Neverland campaigns have refocused on the actors rather than the films themselves, though both movies are still alive. Closer and Kinsey are freaking everybody out, implying fewer top nods than might have been expected. Continued good will toward the disqualified Hero and some critics' awards for House of Flying Daggers are making Zhang look even more like the cream of the foreign crop. Mann scored at NBR, and Collateral has breathed anew. Lots of the stragglers got ditched. |
...thus, December Predictions Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby Michael Mann, Collateral Alexander Payne, Sideways Martin Scorsese, The Aviator Zhang Yimou, House of Flying Daggers trailed by... Michel Gondry, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind Marc Forster, Finding Neverland Michael Moore, Fahrenheit 9/11 Mike Nichols, Closer Bill Condon, Kinsey and in the far distance... Terry George, Hotel Rwanda Richard Linklater, Before Sunset Walter Salles, The Motorcycle Diaries Taylor Hackford, Ray |
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November Predictions Bening/Being Julia Léoni/Spanglish Sandino Moreno/Maria Staunton/Vera Drake Winslet/Eternal trailed by... Collins/Merchant Delpy/Before Sunset Vega/Spanglish Tautou/Very Long Thurman/KBv2 and in the far distance... Kidman/Dogville Mirren/The Clearing Rossum/Phantom Roberts/Closer |
But Since Then... Hilary Swank sailed in on that Million Dollar train (with a Boston prize to boot). Staunton (mostly) and Bening have divvied up the other awards. Spanglish has been left for dead. Maria and its star have racked up some first-timer awards and look poised to win some Indie Spirit laurels. Collins was filed as Supporting, not that anyone is noticing. Delpy is playing peekaboo with minor critics' citations. Thurman and Rossum got Globe nods, as (absurdly) did Scarlett Johansson. So did Kidman, but for her other film, and for her value-added as a red-carpet visitor. Roberts had twins (awwww...). |
...thus, December Predictions Annette Bening, Being Julia Emmy Rossum, The Phantom of the Opera Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby trailed by... Uma Thurman, Kill Bill, Vol. 2 Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and in the far distance... Julie Delpy, Before Sunset Scarlett Johansson, A Love Song for Bobby Long Nicole Kidman, Birth |
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November Predictions Bardem/Sea Inside Bridges/Door Depp/Neverland Foxx/Ray Neeson/Kinsey trailed by... Pacino/Merchant Bernal/Motorcycle Law/Closer Bacon/Woodsman Cheadle/Rwanda and in the far distance... Penn/Assassination Carrey/Eternal Giamatti/Sideways Butler/Phantom Caviezel/Passion Cruise/Collateral DiCaprio/Aviator Spacey/Beyond |
But Since Then... The critical awards that would best ignite Bridges' chances aren't coming. The Globes went bio-crazy: Bardem, Cheadle, Depp, DiCaprio, Neeson, Foxx, Kline, Spacey. Neeson, after a tiny slump, scored with the LAFC. Giamatti, DiCaprio, and Cheadle are attached to especially hot films. So is a certain Mr. Eastwood. Bernal's flicks are out of the big races, but he's still in all the presses. Penn is getting excellent pre-release notices. Butler isn't. Both struck out with Globes voters. Law was in every movie released except for SpongeBob, but he hasn't drawn awards buzz for any of them. |
...thus, December Predictions Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby Jamie Foxx, Ray Paul Giamatti, Sideways Liam Neeson, Kinsey trailed by... Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator and in the far distance... Gael García Bernal, The Motorcycle Diaries Jeff Bridges, The Door in the Floor Sean Penn, The Assassination of Richard Nixon Kevin Spacey, Beyond the Sea |
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November Predictions Blanchett/Aviator Leachman/Spanglish Linney/Kinsey Madsen/Sideways Portman/Closer trailed by... Christie/Neverland King/Ray Dern/We Don't Streisand/Fockers Tomlin/Huckabees and in the far distance... Vega/Spanglish Winslet/Eternal Hall/Ladykillers Morgenstern/Passion Streep/Manchurian Bosworth/Beyond Foster/Very Long Okonedo/Rwanda Sedgwick/Woodsman |
But Since Then... "But" what? The leaders of the pack have mostly extended their lead. Winslet has replaced Christie as Neverland's supporting hopeful. Sharon Warren has emerged as Ray's most buzzed-about lady. William Goldman himself gave her a public shout-out. Dern shared a Boston critics' nod with Warren. Leachman is the only survivor of Spanglish's cardiac arrest. But only barely. The Globes remain Streep-obsessed. But not Babs-obsessed. Lots of these films simply failed to catch fire. |
...thus, December Predictions Cate Blanchett, The Aviator Laura Linney, Kinsey Virginia Madsen, Sideways Natalie Portman, Closer Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland trailed by... Sharon Warren, Ray Meryl Streep, The Manchurian Candidate and in the far distance... Cloris Leachman, Spanglish Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda Laura Dern, We Don't Live Here Anymore Lynn Redgrave, Kinsey |
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November Predictions Carradine/KBv2 Dafoe/Aquatic Law/Huckabees Owen/Closer Sarsgaard/Kinsey trailed by... Freeman/Million Nolte/Rwanda Schreiber/Manchurian Highmore/Neverland Cruise/Collateral and in the far distance... Wahlberg/Huckabees Church/Sideways De la Serna/Motorcycle Lithgow/Kinsey O'Toole/Troy |
But Since Then... Forces conspired to make me look idiotic. Dafoe? Law? O'Toole? Call CSI. Thomas Haden Church roared, and he rampaged, to the front of the pack, with only Owen nabbing a prize (the NYFCC) from him. Sarsgaard missed a Globe invite, but he's still on everyone's tongue. I thought I was helpfully suggesting that Cruise could cheat and call himself supporting. DreamWorks has gone even loonier than that and decided that Foxx deserves a shot at double-glory. Where's the integrity? Nolte and Lithgow look cold as ice, but Freeman is representing for the Oscarless vanguard. No one in the Aviator crowd has set himself apart. Highmore, Wahlberg, De la Serna, and Schreiber still get props from fans of their films, but in every case, there are too few fans to matter. |
...thus, December Predictions David Carradine, Kill Bill, Vol. 2 Thomas Haden Church, Sideways Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby Clive Owen, Closer Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey trailed by... Jamie Foxx, Collateral and in the far distance... Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland Mark Wahlberg, I Heart Huckabees Rodrigo De la Serna, The Motorcycle Diaries |
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November Predictions The Aviator Eternal Sunshine... The Incredibles Kinsey Ray trailed by... Bad Education Spanglish I ♥ Huckabees The Life Aquatic... Shrek 2 and in the far distance... Before Sunset Vera Drake Hotel Rwanda Garden State Napoleon Dynamite Fahrenheit 9/11 |
But Since Then... Sideways has won almost every writing award in sight, so we still don't know much. Eternal Sunshine has at least grabbed a couple of critics' prizes, and The Aviator has joined it among the field of Globes contenders. Kinsey has attracted the kind of controversy that this category often likes. The Incredibles has attracted the kind of box-office that this category often likes. Hotel Rwanda has built considerable momentum, and Vera Drake is at least a succès d'estime. Since Shrek 2 bears no relation to Steig's book, it's technically original, but DreamWorks may pull a switcheroo. In either case, since The Incredibles bowed, the green ogre never comes up. Except for Sunshine, Ray is the least fresh of the six front-runners. |
...thus, December Predictions The Aviator Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind Hotel Rwanda The Incredibles Kinsey trailed by... Ray and in the far distance... Before Sunset Vera Drake Bad Education Collateral |
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November Predictions Closer The Door in the Floor Finding Neverland The Motorcycle Diaries Sideways trailed by... A Very Long Engagement The Merchant of Venice We Don't Live... A Home at the End... The Phantom of the Opera and in the far distance... Being Julia Before Sunset Stage Beauty |
But Since Then... Sideways probably has the largest lead here of any entrant in any race. The suddenly vital Million Dollar Baby is probably a shoo-in to oust Door in the Floor. Neither Closer or Neverland is beloved enough to be a flat "lock," but they're close. Dishonest though it is, running Shrek 2 as an adaptation is the kind of thing a desperate studio would do. Dishonest though it is, Warner Independent is apparently convinced Before Sunset is adapted. There are at least enough legit contenders now to drop the non-starters I recruited earlier as filler. (Stage Beauty? Ha!) |
...thus, December Predictions Closer Finding Neverland Million Dollar Baby The Motorcycle Diaries Sideways trailed by... Shrek 2 The Door in the Floor and in the far distance... The Phantom of the Opera Before Sunset A Very Long Engagement We Don't Live Here Anymore |