Nominee Sofia Coppola Lost in Translation 7:1 |
The film is obviously a director's achievement, intimate and personal in a way American movies rarely even try forand it still found a sizable audience. Coppola is only the third woman ever nominated in this category, wouldn't it be nice to see the winner in a dress? |
Coppola refused to make her movie through any studio channels, which may earn her some admirers but also narrows her circle of friends. Unfortunately, the rarity of nominating a woman may be construed as victory enoughand she's bound to be honored in the Screenplay category. |
Clint Eastwood Mystic River 5:1 |
Few directors enjoy the avid industry respect that Eastwood does; actors gush about his sensitivity and economy, and studios can't get enough of his thrift and precision.
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Sean Penn may well guarantee that Mystic River gets some high-profile awards lovin', and for many voters, that may suffice just fine. Plus, Eastwood's already won, and he hasn't broken the very mold of his craft as Jackson has.
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Peter Jackson The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 2:1 |
Sure, some folks are probably jealous, but more than that, they're blown away by what Jackson has pulled off. And a passionate, visionary, artistically credentialed teddy bear who can make a mint of money three years in a row is not someone that Hollywood will want to see slip away.
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Then again, the Directing category is full of all kinds of upsets: the list of who never won is even more galling here than in most of the other races. Still, I think Peter can feel safe writing that speech (and maybe even shop for some shoes).
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Fernando Meirelles City of God 35:1 |
Oscar has responded with surprising but deserved enthusiasm for Meirelles' daring and inspired extraction of epic filmmaking from the sloppiest streets of a downtrodden city. He made the movie Gangs of New York should have been.
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Quiz question: how many Portuguese directors of violent Brazilian street epics not nominated for Best Picture have ever won this prize? Quick, how many?
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Peter Weir Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World 12:1 |
Don't ask me why, but Peter Weir is the idol of a lot of people. He's a brand name people trust, and in fact, if someone else had directed this movie, I bet that nomination tally would be a lot lower. |
People just aren't sold enough on this movie to recognize Weir this year, when he's been in contention (and lost) for much more Oscar-friendly projects in the past (Dead Poets Society especially). Another Antipodean is going to have his day in the sun.
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