Best Actress, 2004
(Click on the linked film titles for reviews of the corresponding films.)
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Nominee Annette Bening Being Julia 7:1 |
Bening won a Globe and a National Board of Review prize for gripping this showboaty, center-stage part with both hands, and for wringing some laughs and some startlingly intimate moments out of an uneven and pretty forgettable script. The perception that she's owed after an admirable career (and after putting up with being second fiddle to her husband) will count for something, as asinine as that may be. Even more asinine, the Bening/Swank factor will probably figure and probably in her favor. |
I know lots of people are much more optimistic about her chances here than I am, but I just don't see Being Julia being embraced by a sizable enough part of the Academy. First, it's highly theatrical, and if you think that doesn't turn off Academy members by itself, call up the Closer crew and ask how they feel. It's old-fashioned, lacking the creative innovations of Eternal Sunshine or the contemporary relevance of Maria Full of Grace, and nor is it old-fashioned in a way that's easy to cozy up to, like Million Dollar Baby is. Plus, the performance itself is divisive. The best Bening could hope for is a Blue Sky-style career recompensation thing, where the quality of the movie barely figures, but that only worked for Lange (a much more revered figure) because her competition was much weaker than the current field is. |
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Catalina Sandino Moreno Maria Full of Grace 10:1 |
Hugely sympathetic role, bravely played in a halfway-unsympathetic style. Match that with a great story of an actress'
discovery. Plus, wouldn't it be great if this were the start of a noteworthy career? I'm reading a novel right now for which she'd be an
ideal choice in a film adaptation...
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...and there'll be plenty of time for those future projects, if she's worth her salt. Enormous sympathy for Maria as a character
will help, but the anonymity thing will be hard to beat. The best she can hope for is an out-of-nowhere Anna Paquin thing,
but those are much more easily achieved in the Supporting races.
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Imelda Staunton Vera Drake 3:1 |
Anchoring a serious, highly admired movie all by herself, scoring critics' prizes by the wagon-load, and having graduated
from that vast school of half-recognizable character actors—a purgatory where many Oscar voters have inhabited or do inhabit—Imelda
Staunton is an unambiguous lead in an important, pedigreed movie that tackles an important issue in a non-simplistic way. The
two additional nods for Vera Drake indicate that people have been watching their screeners, maybe too late to sway the
Globe or SAG results, but just in time to push her over the top here.
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Still, Vera Drake's disappointing box office implies that people are easily scared off by the movie, and Staunton
doesn't have the kind of name value that will draw voters to the film. Hers won't be the first DVD that Academy members who
are only now catching up on a year's worth of movies will be hustling to watch. The best she can hope for is a Shirley
Booth-style endorsement: when the work is this good, who cares that we don't know who she is? But she's till got some hurdles
to clear.
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Hilary Swank Million Dollar Baby 7:2 |
Certainly on the surface, she's got all her ducks in a row: she's a past winner as well as a beautiful up-and-comer, meaning
she has Oscar's two favorite qualities for this category all rolled into one. She won the Golden Globe, she won the Screen
Actors Guild award, she won prizes from critics' groups, and she's in the highest-grossing film (and the only Best Picture
nominee) in this lot. What could go wrong?
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Incalculables are what could go wrong. Okay, everything with Oscar is incalculable. But this kind of stuff: does Hilary
Swank really need two Oscars? Granted, Luise Rainer and Glenda Jackson probably didn't need two right out of the gate, either.
But up against a tour-de-force by a British thesp, and a fourth nomination for Kate Winslet, and a comic plum by Annette Bening?
There's no compelling reason for people to feel bad voting against her; sentiment is stronger on every other side.
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Kate Winslet Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind 4:1 |
Fine, I probably am applying my personal prejudices. But Oscar clearly loves Kate—you don't nominate someone four times in ten years if you're kidding around, much less an actor in her twenties. Eternal Sunshine could turn out like The Usual Suspects, a film that reaps few nominations, but reaps their loyal support when it comes down to winning. Don't you get the sense that the Academy wants her to win? |
Okay, I probably am applying my personal prejudices. She hasn't won anything that really augurs well for her, and older voters
will be turned off by the spiraling out of the plot and the punkiness of the character.
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