Nominee Johnny Depp Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl 7:1 |
Other actors respect him for making a sturdy, lively career without sacrificing his offbeat sensibility; he even made this callow, money-grubbing project seem like something cheeky and unique. His fizzy turn as Jack Sparrow was the toast of the summer, but he never would have been remembered this long if his peers didn't respect the achievement. |
Bill Murray, who beat Depp for the Musical/Comedy Golden Globe, gets his own fair share of laughs without being deprived those catch-in-the-throat dramatic scenes that Oscar perennially prefers. Solitary funnymen sometimes pull surprises in overly serious fields (see Lee Marvin, Art Carney), but Murray is stealing too much thunder among voters who like to laugh. |
Ben Kingsley House of Sand and Fog 30:1 |
Boy, that Ben Kingsley sure can act, huh?
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Yes, he sure can, and he's already got a statuette and four nominations to prove it. So that settles that, right? Aghdashloo's the revelation, the film's been a disappointment, and Kingsley's name isn't on anyone's tongue.
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Jude Law Cold Mountain 30:1 |
Boy, that Jude Law sure can act, huh?
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Yes, he sure can, and he's got a whole, illustrious career ahead of him to keep proving it. Plus, not everyone thinks Cold Mountain was Jude's finest hour (and clearly the film itself wasn't Oscar's cup of tea).
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Bill Murray Lost in Translation 2:1 |
Sean Penn was expected to sweep up the critics' awards, but Murray surprised him with the New York Film Critics, the Los Angeles Film Critics, the Boston Film Critics, and the National Society of Film Critics. And despite his reputation within the industry as a grump and a recluse, it's not like Sean Penn is running for Homecoming King, either. I suspect more Hollywood lonelyhearts and burnouts can relate to this role than to either of Penn's 2003 powerhouses. But it'll be close.
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As I said, Murray's made a few enemies in his day. His acerbic speech at the Globes didn't go over with everybody, and despite the excitement over Rushmore in '98 (which didn't land a nomination), he doesn't have Penn's longstanding reputation. Did I mention it'll be close?
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Sean Penn Mystic River 5:2 |
This has looked like Penn's year since the release schedules appeared last winter. With Mystic River and 21 Grams showing tonally disparate but comparably intense sides of Penn's prodigious talent, it's a great chance to honor this four-time nominee at a suitable moment, rather than waiting for another I Am Sam to come along. When Meryl Streep was recently asked what actor she'd most like to work with, she said Sean Penn. When Julianne Moore was asked, she said Sean Penn. Clint Eastwood broke Globes protocol (if there is such a thing) to hop the stage and sing his praises. People Who Know think this guy's a genius. But it'll be close. |
Clint wouldn't have had the opportunity if Sean had shown up himself - and, true though it may be, we've heard the family illness story before at awards times. Not everyone seems avid to vote for a no show, or if he does show, to hear a lecture about Iraqi suffering under U.S. action. But honestly, Hollywood can get over this stuff in a heartbeat. If Penn loses, it won't be because of any weakness in his own candidacy, it'll be because Bill Murray's candidacy is so strong. Did I mention it'll be close?
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