EARLY PREDICTIONS:
THE 2002 OSCAR NOMINATIONS
December 4, 2002
Only one of the major critics' groups, the National Board of Review, has posted their year-end winners. No ten-best lists have yet been circulated; even Peter Travers at Rolling Stone, usually the first jackrabbit out of the gate, hasn't tipped his hand. New York and LA Film Critics Awards are almost two weeks away, and the Golden Globe nominations— much less the alphabet soup of BAFTA, SAG, DGA, PGA, WGA, and AFI—are even further on the horizon. What am I doing trying to prognosticate Oscar nominations before any of the reliable bellwethers are revealed? Trying to have fun. Remember how much more exciting it was to predict these things before there were crates of trophies, reams of lists, and oceans of ads cluttering the imaginative field? Sure, things will get clearer and these contenders will reorganize themselves as the weeks go by—but here are my early bets in the highest-profile categories:
PICTURE
DIRECTOR
ACTRESS
ACTOR
SUPP. ACTRESS
SUPP. ACTOR
(Eventual Nominees Marked with a 
)
BEST PICTURE
TOP FIVE CONTENDERS
- About Schmidt — One "acting piece" usually survives; plum turn by popular star, with vivid male & female support
- Catch Me If You Can — High-gloss, year-end auteurist venture by non-Miramaxer; studio work at its best
- Chicago — Rides Moulin Rouge musical revivial, great advance buzz, strong women-voter appeal
- Gangs of New York — Miramax-hyped historical epic with high public recognition; could still bust like Casino
- The Pianist — Cannes prize, brand-name director in major comeback, irreproachable Holocaust premise
Biggest Threats
Bubbling Under
Adaptation, 8 Mile, Far from Heaven,
Minority Report, The Quiet American, Rabbit-Proof Fence,
Y tu mamá también
BEST DIRECTOR
TOP FIVE CONTENDERS
- Curtis Hanson, 8 Mile — Revered industry figured squeezed money & raves out of hip-hop vanity project
- Rob Marshall, Chicago — Luhrmann was left out, but Fosse was an Oscar fave; always one lucky beginner
- Roman Polanski, The Pianist — Old pro returns to ethnic roots, historical interest, classical craft, award podiums
- Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York — God to whole generation of directors & actors remains Oscarless
- Steven Spielberg, Catch Me If You Can — Second, less generic of two commercial-critical hits within one year
Biggest Threats
- Stephen Daldry, The Hours — Made list when Billy Elliot didn't; actors' director on prestige assignment
- Spike Jonze, Adaptation — Virtuosic weirdness pleases directors more than general membership
- Philip Noyce, The Quiet American — Banner year with two image-shattering hits; this one's more serious
- Alexander Payne, About Schmidt — Un-stuffy critical darling directs legend to best reviews in decades
- Denzel Washington, Antwone Fisher — Voters love respected actors who direct: Costner, Redford, Beatty...
Bubbling Under
Pedro Almodóvar, Talk to Her ; Paul Thomas Anderson, Punch-Drunk Love; Alfonso Cuarón, Y tu mamá también; Todd Haynes, Far from Heaven; Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers; Sam Mendes, Road to Perdition; Steven Spielberg, Minority Report
BEST ACTRESS
TOP FIVE CONTENDERS
- Nicole Kidman, The Hours — Still riding popular wave; drastic physical alterations; bigger buzz than Meryl!
- Julianne Moore, Far from Heaven — NBR, Venice awards; totally overdue; more raves in The Hours
- Meryl Streep, The Hours — Seems rigid in the part, but competition is thin; most idolized woman around
- Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding — Peppy, newly vavoomish Cinderella story; actor-writers are prized
- Renée Zellweger, Chicago — Sings her little heart out better than Nicole did in Moulin (but got nod anyway)
Biggest Threats
- Jennifer Aniston, The Good Girl — Well-received movie plus recent Emmy win; TV stigma hurts
- Salma Hayek, Frida — Finally brought biopic to screen; not many critical raves for her acting, though
- Diane Lane, Unfaithful — Respected vet must overcome early release date, preposterous film
- Samantha Morton, Morvern Callar — Emily Watson-ish dark horse if film circulates widely enough
- Sigourney Weaver, The Guys — Also pending how widely film circulates; popular star still Oscarless
Bubbling Under
Cate Blanchett, Heaven; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Secretary
BEST ACTOR
TOP FIVE CONTENDERS
- Nicolas Cage, Adaptation — Flashy, funny dual role marks return to form for past Oscar winner
- Michael Caine, The Quiet American — Two-time winner in heady Miramax project he fought to get released
- Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York — After long absence, collecting best notices from Gangs cast
- Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt — Sensational buzz since Cannes; will have trouble losing this race
- Campbell Scott, Roger Dodger — Hollywood progeny makes good in NBR-winning part in genuine indie
Biggest Threats
- Leonardo DiCaprio, Catch Me If You Can — Two major roles could siphon votes; snubbed for Titanic
- Ralph Fiennes, Spider — Overdue actor collected raves in Cannes, Toronto; Cronenberg a turnoff, though?
- Richard Harris, My Kingdom — High sympathy for deceased legend in weighty Lear-ish role; but campaign?
- Anthony LaPaglia, The Guys — Perennial also-ran may finally make the cut for heart-tugging NYC fireman role
- Edward Norton, 25th Hour — Landed single nod for American History X, but recent PR is shaky
Bubbling Under
Adrien Brody, The Pianist ; Tom Hanks, Road to Perdition; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Love Liza; Greg Kinnear, Auto Focus; Kevin Kline, The Emperor's Club; Derek Luke, Antwone Fisher; Robin Williams, One Hour Photo
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
TOP FIVE CONTENDERS
- Kathy Bates, About Schmidt — Perennial favorite is brassy and bold in bright ensemble; NBR prize
- Tovah Feldshuh, Kissing Jessica Stein — Raves for teary part in springtime lark; obligatory "who's that?" nominee
- Julianne Moore, The Hours — Richest supporting part in big female ensemble; big two-in-one year
- Meryl Streep, Adaptation — Another Hours two-timer going giggly; always reliable default choice
- Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago — Showstopping role in musical bonanza, but Traffic snub still stings
Biggest Threats
- Cameron Diaz, Gangs of New York — Scorsese magic for actresses: Foster, Moriarty, Bracco, Lewis, Ryder, Stone
- Samantha Morton, Minority Report — Haunting in one-of-a-kind role as bald, oozy, gangly prophetess
- Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander — Lovely star finally back in watchable movie—as steely murderess!
- Miranda Richardson, Spider — Triple role for British thesp who's never quite ingratiated herself Stateside
- Susan Sarandon, Moonlight Mile — Could score as grieving mom, or as nasty one in Igby Goes Down
Bubbling Under
Patricia Clarkson, Far from Heaven; Brittany Murphy, 8 Mile; Bebe Neuwirth, Tadpole; Lupe Ontiveros, Real Women Have Curves; Kyra Sedgwick, Personal Velocity; June Squibb, About Schmidt; Emily Watson, Red Dragon
Nominated But Not Predicted
Queen Latifah, Chicago
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
TOP FIVE CONTENDERS
- Chris Cooper, Adaptation — Overdue from American Beauty; tickled NBR as zany orchid thief
- Ed Harris, The Hours — Poignant male standout in distaff ensemble; owed after three losses, all of them near-wins
- Alfred Molina, Frida — Tortured spouse in biopic is terrific success recipe: Broadbent, Connelly, Harden
- Dennis Quaid, Far from Heaven — Oscar likes gay guys played by straights; reformed badboy amidst comeback
- John C. Reilly, Chicago — Singing & dancing is new side for major character actor: The Good Girl, The Hours
Biggest Threats
- Michael Constantine, My Big Fat Greek Wedding — Blessed with weirdly popular Windex gag
- Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York — Could downgrade to Supporting if Actor roster scares Miramax
- Paul Newman, Road to Perdition — Small part, but how do you vote against Paul? Class personified
- Christopher Plummer, Nicholas Nickleby — Owed for The Insider, at least; lip-smacking villain role
- Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can — May finally re-emerge from perennial typecasting
Bubbling Under
Willem Dafoe, Auto Focus; Don Duong, We Were Soldiers; Tom Hanks, Catch Me If You Can; Dennis Haysbert, Far from Heaven; Ray Liotta, Narc; Viggo Mortensen, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers; Noah Taylor, Max; Robin Williams, Insomnia