Surprise! – I've adjusted some of the following, and added predix for all 21 races here. Did anyone think this list was really "final"??


Now that all the critics' groups and the Hollywood guilds have announced their nominee lineups, and with the Golden Globes sitting around in their velvet satchels waiting to be handed out this Sunday, it's as good a time as any to finalize my list of predicted Oscar nominees. Today is January 13, which means the 5:38am (PST) annoucnement is only 12 days away. Surely everyone wakes up and has mimosas that morning like I do? (Thank goodness I live on the East Coast, and that I don't have a "real" 9-5 job.)

If you've actually been following my revisions of these lists, or if you care to see how my thinking has changed, here is where I started in the middle of November, and here is where I'd arrived by the middle of December, with only the first few critics' awards announced. Not a ton has changed since then, but enough to warrant some final adjustments...
PictureDirectorActressActorSupporting ActressSupporting ActorOriginal ScreenplayAdapted Screenplay

...plus, just added on Jan. 23: CinematographyForeign-Language FilmAll Categories




December Predictions
The Aviator
Fahrenheit 9/11
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways

trailed by...
Hotel Rwanda
Ray

and in the far distance...
Eternal Sunshine...
The Phantom of the Opera
Kinsey
Closer
The Incredibles
The Motorcycle Diaries
But Since Then...
Sideways can't be stopped, and Sunshine can't get started.

Million Dollar Baby packed in all kinds of critics' awards and guild citations.

Box-office hasn't heated up much for Rwanda, but people still seem excited about it.

Phantom doesn't seem to be haunting anyone, with the possible exception of its investors.

The Screen Actors, Directors, Producers, and Writers Guilds all flipped Closer the bird.

Michael Moore is smelling like last week's tuna sandwich; the increasing severity of world problems is making his carpy brand of absurdism hit the wrong notes even among people who sympathize. Still, it ain't impossible, though Gibson's camp is nearly as loud.
...thus, Final Predictions
*The Aviator*
*Finding Neverland*
Hotel Rwanda
*Million Dollar Baby*
*Sideways*

trailed by...
*Ray*
Fahrenheit 9/11

and in the far distance...
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
The Phantom of the Opera
The Passion of the Christ





December Predictions
Eastwood/Million
Mann/Collateral
Payne/Sideways
Scorsese/Aviator
Zhang/Daggers


trailed by...
Gondry/Eternal
Forster/Neverland
Moore/Fahrenheit
Nichols/Condon
Condon/Kinsey

and in the far distance...
George/Hotel Rwanda
Salles/Motorcycle
Hackford/Ray
Linklater/Before Sunset
But Since Then...
Payne, Eastwood, and Scorsese have remained way at the head of the pack.

Buzz on Zhang has swelled, including a prediction in Entertainment Weekly.

Continued attention to Collateral bodes well for Mann.

Despite all of this, the Directors Guild decided that mediocrities like Taylor Hackford and Marc Forster were superior practitioners of their craft than either of the above (much less Gondry, Condon, Nichols, Linklater, etc.). At least one of those two place-holders is bound to drop out, but which one, and for whom?

Late Add
Gondry is niggling at my conscience; won't the directors care?
...thus, Final Predictions
*Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby*
Michel Gondry, Eternal Sunshine/Spotless Mind
*Alexander Payne, Sideways*
*Martin Scorsese, The Aviator*
Zhang Yimou, House of Flying Daggers

trailed by...
Michael Mann, Collateral
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland
*Taylor Hackford, Ray*

and in the far distance...
Michael Moore, Fahrenheit 9/11
Terry George, Hotel Rwanda
Richard Linklater, Before Sunset

...but I missed:
*Mike Leigh, Vera Drake*





December Predictions
Bening/Being Julia
Rossum/Phantom
Sandino Moreno/Maria
Staunton/Vera Drake
Swank/Million


trailed by...
Thurman/KBv2
Winslet/Eternal

and in the far distance...
Delpy/Before Sunset
Johansson/Love Song
Kidman/Birth
But Since Then...
Staunton and Swank have hauled most of the critics awards, with Sandino Moreno a frequent choice in the Newcomer races.

Bening and Thurman have neither gained nor lost any heat. (A possible Globe win for Bening would be a good break.)

Thanks to her double-threat, Winslet has sustained a good amount of PR.

Rossum's facial expression is rumored to have changed once during a holiday festivity, but no one agrees quite when. (Must have been the nog.)

Delpy remains a critics' fave, and a frequent runner-up. Is that enough?

New Line agreeably re-released Birth into a couple of theaters.

Zhang's star continues to ascend, and with Memoirs of a Geisha coming up, she'll have a lot of new friends in the studio system who would like to have an Oscar nominee in their preview trailer.
...thus, Final Predictions
*Annette Bening, Being Julia*
*Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace*
*Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake*
*Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby*
*Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine...Spotless Mind*

trailed by...
Zhang Ziyi, House of Flying Daggers
Uma Thurman, Kill Bill, Vol. 2

and in the far distance...
Julie Delpy, Before Sunset
Emmy Rossum, The Phantom of the Opera
Nicole Kidman, Birth





December Predictions
Bardem/Sea Inside
Eastwood/Million
Foxx/Ray
Giamatti/Sideways
Neeson/Kinsey


trailed by...
Depp/Neverland
Cheadle/Rwanda
DiCaprio/Aviator

and in the far distance...
García Bernal/Motorcycle
Bridges/Door
Penn/Assassination
Spacey/Beyond
But Since Then...
The buzz for Giamatti and Cheadle continues.

Baby's buzz isn't necessarily sweeping in Eastwood's performance.

Depp, DiCaprio, and Neeson seem to be fighting for the same two slots, with Bardem sinking along with The Sea Inside's receipts.

Foxx seems poised to win this thing.

Late Add
Okay, Leo won the Globe. But they are starfuckers. Either this is my bonehead miss of the year, or I'll be among the few and the proud to spot the snub. Wait, I'm not that courageous. I'm switching him out for Neeson.
...thus, Final Predictions
*Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda*
*Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland*
*Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator*
*Jamie Foxx, Ray*
Paul Giamatti, Sideways

trailed by...
Liam Neeson, Kinsey
*Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby*
Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside

and in the far distance...
Gael García Bernal, The Motorcycle Diaries
Jeff Bridges, The Door in the Floor





December Predictions
Blanchett/Aviator
Linney/Kinsey
Madsen/Sideways
Portman/Closer
Winslet/Neverland


trailed by...
Warren/Ray
Streep/Manchurian

and in the far distance...
Leachman/Spanglish
Okonedo/Rwanda
Dern/We Don't...
Redgrave/Kinsey
But Since Then...
Virginia and Cate are duking it out for front-runner status.

Widespread adoration for Winslet and combined momentum for her two films make her a possible spoiler. (Too bad, since it's her least interesting performance since A Kid in King Arthur's Court.)

Sharon Warren just won't go away. Everyone's talking about her, and the role is hugely sympathetic. And Ray is sure catching on...

...while Kinsey and Closer aren't. I am doubting Linney's "lock" status, unless she wins the Globe. There's one huge shock each year (à la Dennis Quaid in Far from Heaven), and I think she's vulnerable.

Leachman and Okonedo got SAG nods, but those rosters are notoriously variable in terms of Oscar correspondence.
...thus, Final Predictions
*Cate Blanchett, The Aviator*
*Virginia Madsen, Sideways*
*Natalie Portman, Closer*
Sharon Warren, Ray
Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland

trailed by...
*Laura Linney, Kinsey*

and in the far distance...
Cloris Leachman, Spanglish
Meryl Streep, The Manchurian Candidate
*Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda*





December Predictions
Carradine/KBv2
Church/Sideways
Freeman/Million
Owen/Closer
Sarsgaard/Kinsey


trailed by...
Foxx/Collateral

and in the far distance...
Highmore/Neverland
Wahlberg/Huckabees
De la Serna/Motorcycle
But Since Then...
The SAG folks went for Foxx, Highmore, and James Garner (The Notebook) over Carradine, Owen, or Sarsgaard.

Though Closer's buzz has turned poisonous, Owen is best positioned among its cast to survive, and he has a leg up over Carradine and Sarsgaard, too.

Highmore is a possibility, but only if Neverland gets an across-the-board pass.

I'd like to think Foxx's stowaway status in this category will be rejected as the stunt that it is, but he's been popping up on everyone's list.

The Notebook??
...thus, Final Predictions
David Carradine, Kill Bill, Vol. 2
*Thomas Haden Church, Sideways*
*Jamie Foxx, Collateral*
*Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby*
*Clive Owen, Closer*

trailed by...
Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey
Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland

and in the far distance...
James Garner, The Notebook

...but I missed:
*Alan Alda, The Aviator*





December Predictions
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine...
Hotel Rwanda
The Incredibles
Kinsey


trailed by...
Ray

and in the far distance...
Before Sunset
Vera Drake
Bad Education
Collateral
But Since Then...
Aviator and Eternal seem safest, and Pixar always comes through.

Kinsey held on at the WGA, where Rwanda overcame Ray. I'm still waffling about which of those will be the fifth nominee.

The WGA mysteriously agrees that Before Sunset was "adapted" from something. They also mysteriously believe that Garden State was well-written.
...thus, Final Predictions
*The Aviator*
*Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind*
*The Incredibles*
Kinsey
Ray

trailed by...
*Hotel Rwanda*

and in the far distance...
*Vera Drake*
Garden State
Collateral
Maria Full of Grace





December Predictions
Closer
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries

Sideways

trailed by...
Shrek 2
The Door in the Floor

and in the far distance...
The Phantom of the Opera
Before Sunset
A Very Long Engagement
We Don't Live...
But Since Then...
The WGA snubbed Closer and Neverland in favor of the weirdly categorized Before Sunset and the audaciously un-Academy-like Mean Girls. I'm still not sure I picture Tina Fey on Oscar's ballot, but she'll at least have a leg up on Andrew Lloyd Webber and the Dubus fiasco.

Don't count Irving out, nor Shrek 2, original though it secretly is.

Of my five preserved predictions, Closer is now the most likely to drop.
...thus, Final Predictions
Closer
*Finding Neverland*
*Million Dollar Baby*
*The Motorcycle Diaries*
*Sideways*

trailed by...
The Door in the Floor
Before Sunset

and in the far distance...
Shrek 2
Mean Girls
A Very Long Engagement





Guild Nominations
(from the American Society of Cinematographers, or ASC)

The Aviator
Robert Richardson

Collateral
Dion Beebe & Paul Cameron

The Passion of the Christ
Caleb Deschanel

Ray
Pawel Edelman

A Very Long Engagement
Bruno Delbonnel
But Then...
One or two ASC nominees have missed the Oscar lineup every year since '96 (when the ASC hedged their bets with a six-film lineup).

The mismatches inevitably replace a commercial entry on the ASC list (Return of the King, Last Samurai, Perfect Storm, Sixth Sense, etc.) with a smaller artistic venture (City of God, Girl with a Pearl Earring, Malèna, End of the Affair, etc.). The only recent exceptions were the hit-for-hit swap of Pearl Harbor for Black Hawk Down in '01 and Frida dropping out for juggernaut Chicago in '02.
...thus, Final Predictions
*The Aviator*
Collateral
*House of Flying Daggers*
The Motorcycle Diaries
*The Passion of the Christ*

trailed by...
Ray
*A Very Long Engagement*
Closer

and in the far distance...
Million Dollar Baby
Birth

...but I missed:
*The Phantom of the Opera*
(And who can blame me for that?)





Globe Nominations
Les Choristes
France

House of Flying Daggers
Hong Kong

The Motorcycle Diaries
Argentina/Brazil

The Sea Inside
Spain

A Very Long Engagement
France
But Then...
The Motorcycle Diaries and A Very Long Engagement aren't eligible.

Oscar always has huge discrepancies from the Globes list, largely because of disparate qualifying practices, and also because of different group tastes. (The Globes are usually only honoring crossover hits from the American market anyway.)

Yesterday is a sentimental, topical drama about AIDS and motherhood. Hello!

A Touch of Spice is a warm family dramedy about food. Triple hello!

Whisky has been a festival hit; I think theatrical distribution is already lined up.

Sentimental Family Stuff=Academy Aphrodisiacs: see also As in Heaven, The Keys to the House, Up and Down, Simon...

Historical epics are good ideas: the Malaysian film is apparently a big wow.

Politics can be good or bad: The Welts, Downfall (about Hitler), Innocent Voices, A Lost Embrace (about Jews in Argentina), Chronicles, Machuca (about Pinochet), Earth and Ashes, Turtles Can Fly (about the current war in Iraq), and Olga.
...thus, Final Predictions
*The Chorus/Les Choristes (France)*
House of Flying Daggers (Hong Kong)
*The Sea Inside (Spain)*
A Touch of Spice (Greece)
Whisky (Uruguay)

trailed by...
*Yesterday (South Africa)*
The Keys to the House (Italy)
*As It Is in Heaven (Sweden)*
Hawaii, Oslo (Norway)
A Legendary Love (Malaysia)
The Welts/Pregi (Poland)
*Downfall/Der Untergang (Germany)*
Up and Down (The Czech Republic)
Innocent Voices (Mexico)
A Lost Embrace (Argentina)
Simon (The Netherlands)

and in the far distance...
Chronicles (Ecuador)
Machuca (Chile)
Earth and Ashes (Afghanistan)
Shwaas (India)
Campfire (Israel)
My Name Is Bach (Switzerland)
Beneath Her Window (Slovenia)
Turtles Can Fly (Iran)
Kontroll (Hungary)
Olga (Brazil)

Click here for my predictions in all categories...


CORRECT MAJOR-CATEGORY PREDICTIONS:
(Defined by me as the ten categories on this page)
35 / 50 (70%)


Past success rates with the top 10 categories:
70% in 2003, 78% in 2002, 78% in 2001, 70% in 2000, 74% in 1999, and 76% in 1998.)
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